Hey Kids,
For those of you not interested in Grantland's Bad Quarterback League (BQBL), feel free to hurry past on your way to cute kitten videos. For the partially curious, feel free to check out the inception article here:
For the rest of you, here's my take on the scoring system. Feedback appreciated.
I love the BQBL. The simplicity of the draft, the scoring and the fact
that after the draft you can just walk away and show up
weeks later to find out if you've won.
Ha, but I can't just walk away. I'm hooked.
I spent an hour last
year trying to decide between Tampa Bay and St. Louis. Inevitably, I decided on St. Louis, knowing
that Josh Freeman reported to camp in top shape for 2013 while St. Louis had the tougher schedule
and clearly this was Bradford's make or break season. (Much like it was in 2012...oh. and again this
year in 2014). Sure enough, Freeman
skips the team photo and a month later he's shipped off to
Minnesota. But it really didn't matter
who I had picked, because two weeks later, Sam Bradford's ACL is torn and Kellen Clemens is
picking up the ball. So both teams were
similarly awful. Such is the randomness of this game.
Oh wait, did I say it
didn't matter who I picked? Right, let's
fast forward to the BQBL championship game where I'm up by 30
points and as New Orleans is running the clock down on a 42-17 thrashing of
Tampa Bay. Suddenly, Dan
Orlovsky loses his clipboard and wanders on to the field with 28 seconds left
in the season, handing my opponent
Mike a 35 point bonus and the JaMarcus Russell Championship Trophy. Not that I'm bitter about that. No, what I'm actually bitter about is Geno Smith only
scoring 6 points that day, but within a week this happens:
Despite the random
nature of the scoring, I have this almost autistic need to quantify cause and effect into a
series of statistical models. Who do I draft this year? Clearly I want a pass heavy team with an up-tempo
offense, because more plays from
scrimmage must equate to more BQBL points, right?
Well, maybe not. If I showed you the scatter plot of Plays
from Scrimmage vs. BQBL points you wouldn't see any
correlation. In fact your immediate
reaction would be "That looks like a penis and ball sack" and then you'd sketch
it in like a connect the dots picture. Then you'd claim it was Geno Smith, just to rub salt in
the wound. Suffice to say, you'll need
to look elsewhere for a theory on who to draft. In fact, you can look
at lots of statistics. Then you doubt statistics and start focusing on psychology Some days I start trying to backward engineer regular fantasy strategies and end up trying to pick up scraps of psychology from former quarterbacks turned broadcasters. After a few days of reasoning in circles, I start rocking in a corner like Raymond Babbitt trying to settle the voices in my head
"uh-oh, 15 minutes 'til Kurt Warner".
Over the years, I have observed some inconsistencies with the original rules. Some of them we have self-injected. A fumble counts for 5 points, but fumble also
returned touchdown (FART) counts for 10, or is it 5 plus a
bonus 10? The first year we scored it as
10 and then in following years it jumped to 15. I continued to score
it as 10 points, but in the back of my mind I was thinking, "Wait, a
Touchdown After INTerception (TAINT)
is worth 25. Why are those worth
more?" Well, because we made
it up as we went along, that's why.
Three years in to the BQBL, I think it's worth reviewing some of the rules and modifying the scoring. It would be great if we could standardize the rules and come up with a Grantland-wide consensus, but I can't get eight people to draft teams in a timely manner, so I'm just giving you my opinions and you're welcome to ignore or implement them as you wish.
In terms of the scoring, we obviously choose to award points for poor play, but can we assign a greater weight to some events than others? What criteria might we choose?
My immediate reactions were:
1) Negative Impact to the Team (24/7 points)
2) Negative Impact to the Game
3) Rarity of an event
4) The pure joy one gets from watching these things happen to your opponent's quarterback.
Of course, several events fall into more than one category, so, in trying to create a Venn diagram of recent history I ended up just scribbling on my paper like a hyperactive child with a spirograph.
Here are some
principles to which I tried to adhere:
1) Keep the scoring simple.
2) Reward bad play but balance that with demerit for exceptional play.
3) The Impact on the Game
is more important than rarity of an event.
Naturally, these principles manage to conflict with each other. Some scoring changes I reconsidered many times, others I just sort of slapped down. I rejected some ideas such as -5 points for a 2-pt conversion or awarding points for low scoring offenses. (25 points for a shutout, 10 for scoring less than 7 points)
It's probably easier to just dive right in. (He says after making you read half-way down the page.)
Proposal#1
Fumble Return for TD = 25 points
I'm hoping this is straight-forward. All turnovers are 5 points, but why would a returned fumble not be worth the same as a returned interception? Clearly, these have the same impact on the game. Perhaps, you gain a bit more joy from seeing the pick return than a fumble return, but looking at stats from the past couple of years, the fumble return is more rare (both event-wise and percentage wise). I think it's a wash.
Proposal#2
Safety due to QB penalty = 10 points
Traditionally "Sacked for Safety" = 20 points.
Given the impact on the game, I think this is a bit over-rated point-wise. A ball fumbled into the end zone and then pounced on for a mere 2 game points shouldn't result in the same 25 point BQBL score as if the ball had been recovered for a TD. However, I am willing to consider that the scarcity of the safety (20 times per season?) and that the additional schadenfreude warrants some extra love.
Of those 20 safeties, not all are due to a sack. There is a grey area of plays where it sure feels like points should be added.
I want to keep this one simple, but there are times when the correct play is to kick it out of bounds preventing a worse outcome. I was thinking SuperBowl48 here, but Peyton
wasn't tagged with a fumble, nor did he recover the ball, so no
points to be earned there. Possibly a better example is this
one of BQBL poster-boy Mark Sanchez.
You're welcome to debate whether
this was actually Sanchez' fault, but as he was credited with the fumble, let's accept that he was at fault,
and then made the best of what could have been a much worse situation. Similarly, when Tom Brady passed down the middle
of the field in SuperBowl46 there was an awareness that the play had fallen apart.
I'm sure there will be other incidents that I haven't properly described, but for now:
- Awareness by QB = 10 points
- Oblivion by QB = 20 points
- Oblivion with Tom Cruise = 1 star; it sucked.
Proposal#3
Game Ending Score (OT) = 50 points
Which reminds me, as long as we're making everything equal.
Last year this happened, and there wasn't a rule for it. Most leagues likely made something up on the spot, but I think we can agree the impact is the same whether it's an interception, fumble return or this beauty. Game Over. 50 points.
Proposal#4
QB Removed: Game out of Hand = -20 points
Checks and Balances.
The "Benched" penalty is worth a whopping 35 points. It can pretty much win the week for you, especially since you've probably picked up several turnovers on top of it. As a looking glass rule, I'd like to punish you for that week that you're forced to start your "elite" QB and he lights up the scoreboard to the point where it's not worth jeopardizing his health. Granted, coaches will try and fit in an extra series for a back-up when they can, so let's add the provision that the team must be up by 20 points in the second half when the starting QB gets pulled.
What happens if the game suddenly turns around and the starter goes back in?
I'll suggest you can ignore this rule and get the 35 points for benching the backup.
Proposal#5
Game Winning TD Drive (Last2 minutes) = -12 points
Game Winning FG Drive (Last2 minutes) = -6 points
Game Winning TD Drive (OT) = -6 points
Game Winning FG Drive (OT) = -3 points
I'm going against my "Keep it Simple" decree here, but, yeah, not all game winning drives are equal, and I'm against rewarding QBs when their drive consists of falling down in the middle of the hashmarks.
In addition to the above guidelines I had sub-categories for drives that forced overtime or killed 12 minutes of the clock when holding a slight lead in the 4th quarter. In the end I went with "You have to win the game".
Football Outsiders has a great article here on game winning drives:
Another concern I had with the existing scoring was that it's overtime, someone has to score, right?
Oh wait, I forgot about this game:
Proposal#5a
No Scoring Both Teams (OT) = +6 points
Jerks. I could have been watching Heidi.
Proposal#6: Expanded Rushing Yardage
75-99 Yards Rushing = -8 points
100+ Yards Rushing = -12 points
Team Leader Rushing = -6 points
This is a minor one. 75 yards seems to be the correct threshold to award points to mobile quarterbacks. None the less, until evolution causes us to lose our pinkie fingers/toes and adopt base-8, I still think it's worth acknowledging the 100-yard milestone.
Also, if the QB is single-handedly keeping his team in the game by running for his life, I respect that. This is how a 5-11 team comes within seconds of winning the Canadian Football League Championship.
Proposal#7
Expanded Passing Yardage
This was one of the first things Grantland recognized that they had missed. Week One of the 2011 season Donovan McNabb throws for a paltry 39 yards. It's time we recognized this lack of achievement with its own category.
In addition, those of you intrigued by Dallas' lack of defense and expecting Tony Romo to have 70 Pass attempts playing catch-up during each game will have to trade off potential pick-sixes for the probability that he could have sixteen 500+ yard games and still have an 8-8 record.
500+ Yards Passing = -20 points
450-499 Yards Passing = -15 points
400-449 Yards Passing = -12 points
350-399 Yards Passing = -9 points
300-349 Yards Passing = -6 points
150-199 Yards Passing = 6 points
100-149 Yards Passing = 12 points
50- 99 Yards Passing = 25 points
<50 Yards Passing = 50 points
Proposal#8
Making the Peyton Manning draft pick even more painful. But hey, Nick Foles! I didn't see that coming.
7+ Passing/Rushing TD = -50 points
6 Passing/Rushing TD = -30 points
5 Passing/Rushing TD = -20 points
4 Passing/Rushing TD = -10 points
3 Passing/Rushing TD = -5 points
0 Passing/Rushing TD = +10 points
Proposal#9 24/7 Updates (QB Desperation)
Yes, I know, there's only one JaMarcus Russell, but that 2013 comeback ship has sailed and it's time to look elsewhere for desperation.
That being said, I don't think we can ever give out the same number of points, but I would suggest that there's a subset of players, usually introduced as "43-year old.." or "Former CFL great..." whose names warrant points for just being uttered outside of an inverted pentagram.
Tebow/V.Young/Warner/Favre/Garcia - Rumor = 10 points
Tebow/V.Young/Warner/Favre/Garcia - Workout = 20 points
Tebow/V.Young/Warner/Favre/Garcia - Signed = 35 points
Tebow/V.Young/Warner/Favre/Garcia - Started = 50 points
Proposal#10 Why isn't there a rule for....?
What else did we see last year?
Oh right, Josh Freeman skipping out of the team photo.
Matt Schaub's jersey being burned in the parking lot.
Let's add those in...
Missing Team Bus/Team Event = 10 points
Disenfranchised Fan-Base = 10 points
(Note that Jets fans don't get to whine every week for 10 points. Let's be a bit more creative than that.)
I'm pretty sure there will be several new rules that will occur to us, so rather than trying to divine everything, I suggest we go with
Off-Field "Why isn't there a rule for..." = 10 Points
On-Field "Why isn't there a rule for..." = 20 Points.
Why the discrepancy between off-field and on-field events? Well, off-field antics come in a variety of colours, but surely we've managed to quantify every on-field statistic by now, right?
There isn't anything that could surprise me on-field, is there?
What colourful outbursts could I not have foreseen?
Enjoy the season everyone.
